The NASDAQ held its breath while stock market pundits predicted that the technology segment would rise again as soon as Intel released its new 2GHz Pentium 4 processor on the 27th of August. The day arrived and so did the new Pentium 4. But the raves sounded suspiciously more like whimpers and not a "Yeehaw!" was to be heard in the house. Both the NASDAQ and Intel's stock dipped down and the non-cognoscenti whispered that the analysts were correct; most buyers don't need such power. What rubbish.
If you want to go where Microsoft is taking you today and into the future--video conferencing, streaming internet audio and video--you most certainly do. If you have workstations assigned to AutoCad or PowerPoint presentations, you definitely do. (The 3D graphics card manufacturers have left all the 2D graphics processing to the CPU.) If you do anything that requires significant calculations, like the large monetary projection sheets that banks are so found of generating, you absolutely need as much CPU muscle as you can wrap your arms around.
Apparently, what you don't feel you really need is Intel’s Pentium 4, in any of its iterations, including the latest 2GHz version. Sales have been slow in a market where the bleeding edge is typically gobbled up as fast as it can be produced. Maybe you understand that what the Pentium 4 has been delivering thus far isn’t going to keep you going for a while, because the 2GHz Pentium 4 that showed up for the ball has a Willamette core. That's the "old" style, 256K L2 cache, Pentium 4. What everyone who knew anything actually wanted to see was the new, trimmer, 0.13 micron, 2GHz Northwood core with 512K L2 cache and a few other new tricks up its sleeve.
Why would Intel introduce a new CPU that will be obsolete in less than two months? As the scorpion said to the swan, "It’s my nature." Historically, Intel has always tossed a hand grenade into the room as it left and locked the door. It's Intel's little gift to keep AMD unsettled. Lob in a fast CPU, cut prices, and introduce your next upscale line. But this time around, Intel may find itself stung by its own shrapnel. <p> A 1.7GHz Pentium 4 CPU, for example, now retails at about $193. The new 2GHz version is around $562. (Pricing can vary depending on the quantity of chips purchased so don’t be surprised if you see slightly higher numbers in the retail channel.) Not only does a computer running a 1.7GHz Pentium 4 start life with a $369 price advantage because of the lower CPU cost, but if you package it with Windows XP or Windows 2000, it will perform within a hair's distance of a 2GHz Pentium 4 system running Windows ME--and that was the operating system of choice for the first three 2GHz systems I've seen. (Of course it is. Intel wants to mainstream the Pentium 4 and Windows 2000 is for business. Or, to be more specific, Windows 2000 is not for games.)
Then there’s the obvious: As soon as Northwood shows up, something that was announced to happen in Q4 of '01 (more than a few months ago), its small design architecture and larger cache will obsolete the Willamette chips faster than Malathion kills mosquitoes. Sure, you'll be able to buy some comparatively low-cost Pentium 4 Willamette systems now. Even the price of the 2GHz Willamette model will drop as Northwood appears and Intel clears older inventory. Don’t be fooled by the low prices any more than you have been by the low-technology.
The future is a Northwood Pentium 4 with DDR SDRAM and that's where you're money is invested wisely for the long run. RDRAM systems, if they still exist after Intel's current contract with Rambus expires, will do better with MPEG content and video in general but you’ll only notice the difference if your application is very tightly focused in those areas.
Don't worry about not spending your budget now. Your wait will be over very early next year (possibly sooner if Intel sees that no one's falling for its plan)--and the NASDAQ is already prepared for you to procrastinate.
How do you feel about the Willamette P4? Is Intel releasing a dud to corner the market, or is it a decent chip? E-mail Bill with your thoughts, or post your opinion in Talkback below.
