This was the year that open source lost its hype and innocence, coming into its own as a model for software development and distribution, as well as the social movement envisioned by the GNU crowd.
As the year began, day traders fired Linux company stocks to super-heated levels. As it ends, the bust in stock prices is dramatic--Caldera, which shot up to more than $30 when it opened in March, looks ready to fall to less than $2 any day now. Other Linux-related stocks dropped across the board--the LWN index, my favorite measure of Linux company stocks, hit a high of 199 on Jan. 10 but now sits around 34. By mid-year, companies that wanted to go public, such as Linuxcare, Lineo, and TurboLinux, decided that 2000 wouldn't be the year to do it.
The heyday of pure Linux plays has faded. However, anyone who would simply see the shrinking stock valuations as a signal of ill health within the Linux world would be wrong. For proof of this simply look at IBM, which is poised to invest a billion dollars in Linux activities after already making huge Linux moves this year. Reports of complaints about the effect of this announcement on Linux companies totally missed the point: In 2000, IBM became a Linux company. Its proposed Linux expenditure is larger than Red Hat's entire market cap.
Indeed, the distinction between Linux and Unix-like operating systems blurred substantially in 2000. Caldera purchased Unix vendor SCO in mid-year. IBM added Linux capabilities into its latest Unix. The BSD world took advantage of open source's popularity, as BSDI took over maintenance of FreeBSD and now seeks to rival Linux vendors. The old Bell Labs Plan 9 system has been revived as Inferno. Even Sun got into the act, and has referred to its Solaris operating system as Sun's implementation of Linux.
At the start of 2000, the Microsoft antitrust trial was high on the list of the Linux world's things to watch. On the eve of 2001, the new regime in Washington may change the government's will to prosecute. But now, by and large, Linux folks no longer care. They know their future is in their own hands and that Redmond should be considered less of an oppressor and more of a strong competitor.
Most of this year's news has been good for those who maintain that Linux (and open source in general) is an acceptable choice for corporate computing. The desktop breakthrough remains distant, even unattainable, despite significant strides. Still, Linux has established itself as more than just a plaything of academics, hobbyists, and dot-coms--and it's done so without squandering some of its core values such as not releasing a product before it's of acceptable quality. The year 2000 didn't see a major release of a new kernel because, well, it simply wasn't ready yet.
Still, the Linux world faces some serious challenges in the future. Here are the ones I believe will be most important in the months to come:
Standards--While choice is an important element of Linux's appeal, it can also be an impediment. The community needs to exhibit the maturity to identify specific areas such as desktop component programming and software packaging, in which diversity causes more problems than it solves. Next year is the one in which the Linux Standard Base group either makes its mark or heads for oblivion.
Definition--As Linux enters the mainstream, Linux fans increasingly find themselves answering the question, "What is Linux?" But the questions aren't coming from newbies. The blurring of the distinctions between Linux as we now know it, commercial Unix, BSD, GNU Hurd and other operating systems is going to make it harder than ever to describe a "typical" Linux system.
The good news is that it won't be seen as Unix-style fragmentation because in the world of the GPL, nobody can close off a proprietary development path or impose self-created "standards" without wide support. The challenge will be for vendors to keep their messages and products coherent in order to minimize public confusion.
Consolidation--It's only natural that some current Linux vendors will find the marketplace inhospitable. Look for more Linux companies to buy or be bought by mainstream vendors. And with IBM getting deeply into Linux, can HP and Compaq--or even Dell--be far behind? Look for some of these companies to buy into existing Linux smarts rather than roll their own.
Other related fields, such as Linux magazines and trade shows, are also due for a shakeout.
In all, it looks to be an interesting 2001. It won't be as frenzied as this year, to be sure, and should be marked by reflection, relationships, and caution rather than break-neck innovation and emotions. Bring it on.
What do you see for Linux in 2001? Tell Evan in the TalkBack below or in the ZDNet Linux Forum. Or write to Evan directly at evan@starnix.com.
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