COMMENTARY-- Perhaps you've heard the rumor that Microsoft plans to add its UltimateTV personal video recorder technology to some future version of its Xbox game console.
I can't tell you for sure whether or not Microsoft is really doing this. But I can tell you they'd be stupid not to, especially if they can hit an attractive price point (say, around $500). Furthermore, most of my friends inside Microsoft seem to think such a device is a foregone conclusion.
If MS added the new Xbox Live online service to the mix, along with the e-mail and browsing features of WebTV, and bits and pieces from the Freestyle e-home project, you'd have a really compelling product. Of course, depending on the actual implementation of the hybrid device, it could also be a hard-to-use mishmash of features that don't really belong together.
HOWEVER MICROSOFT implements what some have called the "Frankenbox," the number of companies that could compete with it in that business is small.
Of the game console companies, only Microsoft has developed its own DVR. Of the DVR companies, only Microsoft has its own game console.
That doesn't mean Microsoft will be the only company with a combo box. Sony already has its Playstation and a relationship with TiVo. I expect other big consumer electronics companies to find a way into this market as well.
I also expect we'll see other combinations besides games and a DVR in a single box. A DVR combined with a DVD player makes sense, though it would probably drive the rights-management people to a new level of distraction, especially if the DVD had recording capabilities for archiving programs first recorded to the DVR.
Or maybe we will see satellite tuners (which are already being combined with DVRs) in the mix, perhaps with tuners for high-definition television. Toss DVR, game, DVD, CD, radio tuner, HDTV tuner, home networking, and a few other technologies into a blender, and all sorts of interesting products could emerge. Add a broadband connection to the outside world, and things really get interesting.
The cable television industry has been floating such concepts for "next-generation" set-top boxes for some time. The most notable of these was Moxi, the ill-fated darling of this year's Consumer Electronics Show.
TO PUT all this conjecture into another context, consider a conversation I had recently at the CEO Summit of the Consumer Electronics Association.
This is the same group that puts on CES every January. A week or so ago, they gathered about 100 consumer electronics executives in Idaho for a couple of days of sessions, schmoozing, and golf. (No, I don't play.)
At one point, I was talking to the CEO of a big retailer, who startled me with the assertion that the television set--not some set-top box--will be the center of the home "digital hub." That idea--and he's not the only person who mentioned it to me--apparently brings dollar signs to the eyes of almost everyone involved in selling digital goodies to the couch potato nation.
What concerns me about this idea is that it puts the electronics needed to build a digital hub inside the TV, right behind the screen.
These same people are also talking about the wonders of flat-panel screens--giant LCD and plasma displays thin and light enough to easily hang on walls. So you either get a huge conventional tube TV with lots of built-in functionality, like a DVR and a DVD. Or you get a thin and light screen that relies on outboard electronics but looks absolutely stunning.
MY BET: The component model, with tomorrow's TV set reduced to the role of a monitor (just like a PC's), is the concept that wins.
We'd be much better off, I think, separating the screen, which should have a fairly long service life, from the electronics, which may be subject to regular upgrades and replacement, like a PC.
Not all "digital hubs" will follow this model, of course. Apple could easily work with a company like Sony to turn its iMac into a more general-purpose entertainment center while remaining a powerful computer. And doubtless some TV sets really will gain a bunch of additional functionality, and help.
But for the most part, I expect the digital hub to more closely follow the model of a computer and peripherals (or component stereo system) than that of a single box that does everything and includes the screen, too.
How many components will be connected to create this system? I don't know, though it's clear customers want more features, with fewer cables and remote controls to connect and operate them.
And, yes, all this stuff will be clustered around the big screen in your den. So if you want to say the TV will be the center of the hub, that's OK with me--so long as we remember that the TV screen is merely an output device and not the center of the digital universe.
What do you think the future TV will look like? What would you want it to do? TalkBack to me below.
