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By Nick Heath, silicon.com
Posted on ZDNet News: Sep 03, 2008 8:39:01 AM

After all the polished promises of a streamlined new way to tame the web, the blogosphere was ready to predict Chrome would inspire everything from the end of Firefox to the demise of Microsoft itself.

silicon.com spoke to industry experts and Google's new rivals to find out why Chrome matters and whether the browser reality can deliver on the hype.

Internet Explorer's stranglehold
The average computer user tends to lack the technical know-how or motivation to change from their default browser, Internet Explorer, giving Microsoft around 60 per cent of the market without even trying. Despite being the only really viable alternative to IE's domination, Firefox has struggled to gain above 20 per cent of the market.

In spite of Google's huge brand leverage analysts feel Chrome could still struggle to gain a foothold when faced with consumers who prefer to stick with what they know.

David Mitchell, VP for IT research at analysts Ovum, said: "Internet Explorer is still used by about 60 to 70 per cent of people and there is a big chunk of the population who are remarkably reticent to change platform.

"I think that Google will grab market share but whether they will knock IE off the top spot is another scenario."

Microsoft itself is confident of IE's unassailability. The company said: "The browser landscape is highly competitive but people will choose Internet Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at their fingertips, respects their personal choices about how they want to browse and puts them in control of their personal data online."

Bad track record
Despite Google's search dominance, its other homegrown applications have failed to attract anywhere near the same popularity.

It was one of the first companies to enter the social networking market with orkut but the site remains largely unknown outside of Brazil, and despite being launched before YouTube, Google Video always failed to match its popularity, eventually forcing Google to buy up its rival.

Similarly, despite being perhaps the most well-known Google branded app outside of search, Gmail still lags behind Windows Live Hotmail.

Nate Elliott, research director at analysts Jupiter Research, said: "In most cases the products that Google has delivered on its own have failed.

"To achieve success they have had to buy in services from elsewhere and not build them themselves."

Google backlash
With the Google brand already ubiquitous worldwide, could the sheer scale of the search giant's reach start to scare consumers? Tor Odland, head of communications for rival browser Opera, thinks the brand's attempted dominance could prompt an anti-Microsoft style backlash against lack of choice.

He said: "You have to ask whether people want to use products and services from only one company. It is a return to the days of Microsoft.

"I wonder how people will feel about being so tied into one company - the one thing that the online world has taught us is that people like choice."

Damage to Google services
Google has traditionally taken a cross platform approach to its services and worked closely with its soon-to-be rivals Opera and Mozilla, and recently renewed a deal with Mozilla that puts Google as the default search in Firefox. Focusing on Chrome could see those all-important bonds start to loosen.

Odland said: "It is important that they keep testing their services for compatibility with other browsers.

"We hope that they will continue to work with Opera and Mozilla to deliver a better internet experience."

Jupiter Research's Elliott believes Google is hedging its bets: "They have given themselves plenty of time to make progress in the browser market while maintaining a strong presence in Firefox."

How to get it out there?
There is also the question of how Google will get Chrome onto people's computers in the first place. Will it take the Apple approach of bundling it with other application downloads as Apple did with Safari and iTunes or Sun's bundling of Java downloads with OpenOffice.

Ovum's Mitchell said: "One thing that has not been made clear is what is their distribution strategy? Are they going to rely on downloads straight from the Google site or follow the lead of Apple?"

Jupiter Research's Elliott said: "Firefox is by all accounts a fantastic browser and still has less than 20 per cent browser share. That speaks volumes about how big an advantage Microsoft has by installing IE on PCs."

On the other hand, see why Chrome may well be the next big thing...

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  • Talkback
  • Most Recent of 111 Talkback(s)
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn
One important thing to remember is that you have to reach the "average Joe". Those who are only a little computer savvy (and there are many such consumers out there) don't even know there are browser... (Read the rest)
Posted by: EBathory Posted on: 10/10/08  (Edited: 10/10/08 @ 05:19) You are currently: a Guest | | Terms of Use
Beta version not stable  matojo2006 | 09/03/08
The process seperation and sandboxing is best of class  stevey_d | 09/03/08
My reason  syhprum1@... | 10/09/08
A chrome beta is NOT forcing a "work in progress" down consumer throats!  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  rbethell | 09/03/08
Agreed, and it's SOOOOOOOOOOOO fast!!!!!!  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  theArgiope | 09/03/08
And to stop CheatingLyingBuggySoft from making IE GoogleApps incompatible!  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
DUDE!  bentedgz | 10/09/08
LOL  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  James Joseph | 09/03/08
So very happy  David Gerard | 09/03/08
re: So very happy  Insaniac99@... | 09/03/08
What?  micks_tricks | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  chuckbaggett@... | 09/03/08
File-Edit-View in IE7  Unkie Tripps | 09/03/08
re file edit view  knightrider2@... | 10/10/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  yox | 09/03/08
Mankind working together instead of lying and robbing each other.  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  dealyb | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  nasht00 | 09/03/08
Good point  Unkie Tripps | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  otackle7@... | 09/03/08
Reason Number 6  Tony R. | 09/03/08
Re: Reason Number 6  Insaniac99@... | 09/03/08
Just like Microsoft  micks_tricks | 09/03/08
it is different  Insaniac99@... | 09/03/08
I just started using Chrome, It is fast.  arrowrod | 09/03/08
Yes you can  ImaGremlin | 09/04/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  Insaniac99@... | 09/03/08
Hmmm...  The_Mastermind | 09/03/08
Your statistics are wrong  GoPower | 09/03/08
Not really!  micks_tricks | 09/03/08
depends on country  stevey_d | 09/03/08
Google's lack of concern for privacy  LiquidLearner | 09/03/08
Your Privacy is Your Problem  gbentley@... | 10/09/08
All Google needs to do....  carpenter.222 | 09/03/08
Your right!  The_Mastermind | 09/03/08
Orkut dominates in India, so does Firefox  kpthottam@... | 09/03/08
Social networking and internet browsing apps are now center of Technology  micks_tricks | 09/03/08
75% of internet traffic doesn't go through USA  stevey_d | 09/03/08
ZZZZZ....nt  USTechHead | 09/03/08
Live in ignorance dude. Quick, bury your head in the sand.  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
International energy alert. North America is rebooting again!  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  mrbwood | 09/03/08
All ur base R belong to Google.  gimzor | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  amafelopes | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  TurboFool | 09/03/08
Propagation of Chrome  hardmanb | 09/03/08
Reason 6:  rastafart | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  Loverock Davidson | 09/03/08
"chrome doesn't have the functionality" care to point out one function  stevey_d | 09/03/08
Glady  Loverock Davidson | 09/03/08
ha ha  stevey_d | 09/03/08
Huh?  The_Mastermind | 09/03/08
He isn't anti google...  thelivo | 09/03/08
Scary? It's almost terrifying, his level of ignorance.  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
60-70% reticent to change browser?  stevey_d | 09/03/08
Unlike Apple and Linux  micks_tricks | 09/03/08
"get over it" - don't you read the news?  stevey_d | 09/03/08
I don't think they got in trouble for  USTechHead | 09/03/08
The Netscape lawsuit was BS  LiquidLearner | 09/03/08
No I am not glad  David Turner | 09/08/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  bj70117@... | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  DwainP56 | 09/03/08
Like Google search, it'll start in the tech world  coffeeshark | 09/03/08
nah, Yahoo made Google popular  LBiege | 09/03/08
One Reason It May Succeed  kevin@... | 09/03/08
I'm kinda liking it...  damnIneedAjob | 09/03/08
So another set of standards?  agsGeoff | 09/03/08
It's just another wonderful EULA  Boot_Agnostic | 09/03/08
Reticent?  kurmat | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  kurmat | 09/03/08
Internet Explorer became dominant by being the best browser  LiquidLearner | 09/03/08
Agree mostly  rwk2of3 | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  rwk2of3 | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  thelivo | 09/03/08
IE displays text better than FF or Chrome  dar.millionaire@... | 09/03/08
What about OWA and SharePoint support?  Unkie Tripps | 09/03/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  jimk_z | 09/04/08
One reason why Chrome will soar: RiA  gary_edwards | 09/04/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  lancekoz55@... | 09/05/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  escortboy01 | 09/05/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  rudyn | 09/05/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  danielarbib | 09/05/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  danielarbib | 09/05/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  THX 1138 | 09/06/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  The Common Man | 09/06/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  bonandjon | 09/07/08
Ridiculous arguments  carvalhao | 09/08/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  Raider00 | 09/08/08
Incomplete.  magallanes | 09/08/08
Depends on What You Call Failure  gbentley@... | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  pbell@... | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  Digitalcomet | 10/09/08
desperate attention-grabbing headline  james.faction | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  GaBrownzFan | 10/09/08
Not true  pavelkup | 10/09/08
I think some attacks on IE are unfair  cymru999 | 10/09/08
Average Joe couldn't give a F.  fr0thy2 | 10/09/08
Setting stage for a GComputer  sysin | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  phildavibang@... | 10/09/08
Chrome works fine for me  alterbridgeandrew@... | 10/09/08
Chrome is the new #1 for me  gcambull | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  tmp0808 | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  phatkat | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  smosner | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  smosner | 10/09/08
Chrome can't possibly fail  T1Oracle | 10/09/08
Its's also funny how 3 of those 5 reasons only exists to IT people :\ ...  T1Oracle | 10/09/08
RE: Five reasons why Chrome will crash and burn  EBathory | 10/10/08

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