Tech predictions for 2010

>> Larry: 2009 is almost over and it's time to start thinking about the New Year. Here to discuss the five tech topics that will shape 2010 is Sam Diaz, Senior Editor of ZDNet. Thanks for joining me, Sam.

>> Sam: Sure. Thanks for having me.

>> Larry: So cloud computing. I think we had this on the list last year and it, it's kind of always on the list, and yet there's 3-4% companies that are actually using this stuff. Is this the year cloud computing takes over everything?

>> Sam: Oh, we say that every year and I just. I don't know. I don't see that happening this year. I think cloud computing has some, some good traction ahead of it, but I think we're looking more at the hybrid model. Baby steps are sort of the key here. I think there's still a lot of concerns about security, reliability. I mean look, if Gmail goes down for a day and the entire, you know, industry just sort of blows up, oh, cloud computing's the worse thing ever.

>> Larry: Yeah.

>> Sam: No. I, I don't know that's necessarily the case. I think that, you know, there's some bold moves happening in cloud computing. The City of Los Angeles signing on for Google Mail I think was pretty huge. Some, some cost-savings there for them if, if, you know, it can be reliable and, and worth it. So I, I don't think that it's necessarily the year of cloud computing, but more continued baby steps we'll say.

>> Larry: And then the Android Army, obviously it's a bunch of devices right now all launched for Christmas. You've been running around with the Droid. Can't shut up about it. Is this the year Android makes its big move and takes over market share, catches iPhone?

>> Sam: I, I think it is. I think it's the year that it, it probably does catch the iPhone. You know, it's out there. Various carriers. Various manufacturers. Motorola's put all of its eggs in sort of the Android basket. You've seen the big splash of HTC. That you assumed spelling campaign, they're doing that better than Yahoo, after all. You know I've seen, there's some traction there with what's happening in Android. You know, there's also this sort of Chrome OS thing that's happening out there, which is sort of an extension of Android. Probably going to go into some, you know, sort of computer Netbook type thing. You know, it's, it's, it's Android's the year and I think 2010's the year we're going to see it really take off.

>> Larry: You think we'll see Android and Chrome merge?

>> Sam: I think they're sort of already merging. And they sort of feel inaudible.

>> Larry: Yeah. They're kind of. Yeah.

>> Sam: And they kind of feel the same inaudible.

>> Larry: They kind of dance around it.

>> Sam: Yeah, they are. I mean I like what, you know, Chrome OS is, is talking about doing and eh, I just think it's an extension of what mobiles are already doing.

>> Larry: The other thing's definitely the Netbook and we both kind of think Netbooks are a little junky. I'm kind of sick of them already. Is this the year they fall away?

>> Sam: I certainly hope so. I mean I'm not necessarily a big fan of.

>> Larry: It's a fat finger, right?

>> Sam: It's the fat finger thing, you know. Those, those keys are really tight in there. There's not a lot of power behind them. Oh sure, I mean if you're living completely in the cloud then there's probably some value there. But you know, I mean as much as I like the cloud I'm not living there 100% so.

>> Larry: Yeah.

>> Sam: Yeah. I don't know. I mean yeah, they're cheaper and the whole bit. But they're less powerful too and, you know, notebooks themselves aren't too expensive. Now I think that if, you know, Chrome, Google's OS comes in and I don't know if it'd be a savior but it'll keep some life in there. Keep it breathing for a while. But eh, I don't know, if they're going to last that long.

>> Larry: Yeah. Yeah, I kind of think they're done.

>> Sam: Yeah.

>> Larry: The other one is Apple's iTablet. This thing, you know, it's like a unicorn. It's like spotting Big Foot, unicorns, pick your fictional figure. Is 2010 the year we're going to get an iTablet?

>> Sam: Well, if you blogosphere yeah, it sounds like it.

>> Larry: They've been wrong for a year.

>> Sam: They've been wrong for a long time.

>> Larry: That's right.

>> Sam: Well, I mean you know, apparently Steve Jobs was working on that behind-the-scenes when he was on medical leave. I mean it's sort of his baby. You know, I think we're going to see something along that line. We're definitely not going to call it a Netbook. And Tim Cook already went on the record calling Netbooks junky.

>> Larry: Yeah.

>> Sam: So they're not going to do that. You know in terms of the iTablet I think there's a there-there. Probably more like a, I don't know, sort of like a, a cross between the mobile phone and the notebook. You know, a little bit bigger than the iPhone. Smaller than the National notebook. Yeah, I think there's definitely something there on the iTablet but, you know, I'm not one of those bloggers that's going to go out on a limb on that one. There's plenty doing that already.

>> Larry: Exactly.

>> Sam: Yeah.

>> Larry: And finally Windows 7. Is this the year where, you know, it. It's supposed to be our savior, right? It's supposed to fuel IT spending, get corporate upgrade cycles going. Consumer is supposed to be dazzled by the thing. Is this the year everybody's Windows 7 happy?

>> Sam: Well, even I like it. I mean Windows 7 I think is a much better system, exponentially better system than Windows Vista was. There's a lot of pent-up demand out there for companies that didn't go the Vista route. You know, they've been on XP for, you know, better half of the decade. I mean you know.

>> Larry: I'm in that club.

>> Sam: Well, so there you go. I mean so I think there is some, a lot of demand out there. Windows 7 is pretty stable. It seems pretty strong. I like what I'm seeing so far. I think we're going to have to watch out for the bugs that may surface over the next year or so. You know, as it comes with Microsoft and Windows the hackers love to get in and, and make trouble. So we'll have to stay on top of that. But I think yeah, this, this could be the year for Windows.

>> Larry: All right. Thanks for joining me.

>> Sam: Sure. Thanks for having me.

>> Larry: For more information on the topics we discuss today you can visit blogs.zdnet.com. I'm Larry Dignan. Thanks for watching.

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