Is 3DTV the successor to HD?

>> Narrator: I should have revised this 3D description of this panel which I wrote right after I saw Jeffrey Katzenberg at a Fortune conference that was highly ballyhooed and featured in newspapers all over the world in which he said--he actually said this and only slightly less enthusiastic terms at a 3D conference that was held in September, that in his view 3D television is for all intense and purposes the successor to HD is going to be standard with glasses within a year or two and he sees glasses as only a transitional technology which will have us watching 3D television unaided--I believe he said three years after that. So if you add two plus two it sounds like he's saying four or five years from now we're going to be watching television unaided. And he added to that the fact that he sees 3D extending itself very quickly to all types of devices including cell phones that project 3D images on walls. We actually have an example of 2D images here being exhibited on walls but he says 3D. And that he sees as the next entire generation of anything that's worthwhile in content production in Hollywood. So I thought I would throw that enthusiastic assessment at the panel and see what you think about it.

>> Panel Member: Well I wish I could hire Jeffrey as our EBP of sales at Real T assumed spelling; he's a great evangelist for the technology certainly and I think at Real T we broadly agree with his vision. Being down in the nuts and bolts of the technology maybe the time frames are a little aggressive but I would say that consumers by in large haven't come around to the vision that 3D is the future; I think around 20% or so are starting to think that way and the other 80% are still learning about it. But when you get into say for example consumer electronics industry there is a pretty broad consensus that it's even potentially more transformative than HD which might seem a little surprising at first; but the reality is you look at a DVD signal versus an HD signal and it's nicer right? You look at a 3D signal on a TV versus an HD signal it blows you out of your chair. I mean it's fantastic. It's like experiencing a movie by watching it happen through a window as opposed to this thing in 2D--it really looks great. It's a big deal so how long does all this take to really build an install base because you do need to replace the TV to get that kind of experience. It will take a while. I think one key point to bring up is that it doesn't really add cost to the TV to add this feature if you do it in an active Iware assumed spelling methodology so you have to buy kind of expensive Iware but it doesn't actually add much cost to the TV so his notion that it will be standard in TV's is not really that far out there so maybe you add a couple bucks cost to the TV so what you'll have is not necessarily people going into the store to buy a 3D TV because they need 3D, but when they buy a new TV it's going to support 3D; and as that install base grows you'll see TV networks supporting it and the studios supporting it with their windowing and it will take hold and it will be a big deal in about four or five years from now--it will be very, very common.

>> Panel Member: So I'll talk about the glasses free vision. It's great; it is the Holy Grail, we'd all like to see it; the problem is it's just some fundamental physics that you have to get around when you take that view and you try to make it in multiple angles you have to divide up the pixels; at least with the way we see the technology today and there's no practical way around that. Maybe many of you have seen it. If you're in a small environment, a personal environment, there are actually some cell phones that have 3D displays where you can kind of modulate the left and right eye view--that kind of works. But in a family viewing situation I think it's going to be a while. If you're going to go that far I'd rather see the holodec assumed spelling from Star Trek just make it so number one because that would really be an immersive experience. But I think as was mentioned one of the technical issues having the higher frame rate display so you can display the left and right eye, the technology is there today. Many of you are buying HD sets; 120 Hertz to 240 Hertz refresh rate with all the display technology is out there today. So it is a relatively simple matter to do the alternating frame sequential approach which is why the glasses are the quick way to the market. And with the Blu-Ray scanners being just about done, looks like there'll be lots of initial content. Many of us are expecting Avatar to be kind of the tipping point for kind of going mainstream with 3D in the cinema. It's already there but I think Avatar will kind of begin to push more of the Hollywood folks over into seeing 3D as being a real business. Insofar the box office receipts for 3D, they are making money. Money talks in Hollywood at the end of the day, not technology.

>> Panel Member: Three percent of the films that were produced this year were 3D delivering 10% of the box office. So it's a pretty stunning figure. I think this is really about monetization. And certainly for someone like Jeff Katzenberg who runs a company called DreamWorks Animation he's way out in front with 3D as most of the animators are because animation is modeled in 3D and CGI and it becomes very easy to render the 3D just by rendering as an extra eye. So you can control all your elements in 3D in animation. The real issue is going to be content going down the road because it's not just animation that's going to be a driver here; and ultimately if you're going to make a decision to change that television set and by something for your family for your home, are you really going to buy Monsters and Aliens and Up and all the animation that's been done is that going to drive you to go out and change your whole system. I think the issue is going to be really driven forward as Patrick was saying through Avatar which has live action elements in it. But I can tell you having had experience in shooting this stuff; the technology is way out in front of what the learning curve is here in terms of delivering 3D. And I think that really for this to catch on, and it's here to stay for sure, but it's an option. It's not going away, 3D will be an add-on, you'll see certain products made in 3D but there is a huge amount of interest in this in terms of producing shows but there really is not a huge amount of personnel who is capable of doing it. So there's going to be a ramp-up in terms of being able to deliver the kind of content that really makes 3D work outside of computer animation and certainly gaming is going to lead the way with this.

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